报 告 人:Prof. Dominic Reeve Swansea University, UK
报告时间:2014年6月3日 (星期二) 上午10:00-11:30
报告地点:严恺馆702会议室
主办单位:港口海岸与近海工程学院
报告内容:
This talk will discuss the potential impacts of climate change on our coasts, how we can assess the relative importance of different scenarios and what the key variables driving change are likely to be. The talk will focus on simple models that describe coastal change coupled with a statistical perspective. Both Monte Carlo and momentum equation approaches will be included to describe the uncertainty in forecasts introduced by uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions. Even for simple models, a statistical approach can become either mathematically complex or computationally intensive. This talk will conclude with some general observations about what statistical approaches can provide us, how we can use them to assess the impacts of climate change and some thoughts about future lines of research.